Grangeclare West: The 2026 Grand National Gamble Gathering Pace

Six weeks ago, Grangeclare West was a 25/1 shot for the Grand National. Well regarded in the right circles, but sitting quietly in the each-way column rather than troubling the favourites. Then he won the Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse, coming from last to first under Paul Townend and by the time the bookmakers had finished reacting, he was half the price.

He is 11/1 now. Co-favourite in most shops. And his odds may not be done shortening yet.

What the Bobbyjo Told the Market

The Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse has become the pre-eminent Grand National trial. Mullins won it with Nick Rockett twelve months before Rockett won the National last year. He won it with I Am Maximus the season before that. He has now won the race fifteen times in total, ten of the last eleven. When the same trainer uses the same race as a springboard for consecutive Grand National winners, the market pays attention.

Grangeclare West was not even entirely expected to win it. He had not won since the Christmas Grade 1 at Leopardstown in 2023, and the ground at Fairyhouse that day was heavy, which was described as a concern.

Townend was asked after the race whether it had been a masterclass ride. “Was it?” he said. “I thought they went a good gallop in heavy ground but I was on a classy animal. I'm just glad it worked out.”

That slightly understated verdict conceals what was actually a very deliberate piece of horsemanship. Townend held him at the back of the field, let the race develop in front of him, and produced him precisely when he needed to.

The horse got in wrong at the last, a shuddering error that could easily have ended his chance, but he picked himself up and powered away regardless. “He can get you out of trouble,” Townend said afterwards.

A horse who can make a mistake at the last fence and still win by five and a half lengths is a horse worth taking seriously.

Third Last Year, Better Placed This Year

What is easy to forget about Grangeclare West is how close he came twelve months ago. He finished third in the 2025 Grand National, beaten half a length for second, in a race that ended as a one-two-three for Willie Mullins.

Nick Rockett won, I Am Maximus was second, and Grangeclare West was third. On a different day, with a different slice of luck, the result could easily have been rearranged.

He is carrying 11st 10lb this year, 2lb more than last year, which reflects the handicapper's acknowledgement that he ran a very good race. But he is also a year older and a year wiser, and the Bobbyjo win behind him gives connections exactly the confidence they wanted coming into April. His weight is at the higher end of what recent winners have carried, but it is not prohibitive.

The ten-year-old has been one of the most consistent performers at the top level of staying chasing over the past two seasons.

The Townend Factor

There is an element of the Grangeclare West story that sits entirely outside the form book. Paul Townend has to choose between him and I Am Maximus for the 2026 Grand National, and he has said he will leave the decision as late as possible.

He has ridden Grangeclare West in all five of his wins. He won the Bobbyjo on him six weeks ago. And at Fairyhouse that day, before the decision had formally been presented to him as a dilemma, he said of Grangeclare West: “He has to be in the mix.”

The market has already started pricing in the likelihood that Townend's choice, when it comes, it will move the needle. A confirmed Townend booking on race week would shorten Grangeclare West again. Punters who want to back him after that announcement may find they are doing so at a shorter price than 11/1.

The Case for Him at This Price

There are three numbers that sit at the centre of the Grangeclare West argument. Third in last year's Grand National. Winner of the Bobbyjo, the race that produced the last two National winners. And 11/1, a price that was 25/1 six weeks ago and has been moving in one direction ever since.

He is trained by the man who has dominated this race in recent years. He is likely to be ridden by the best jump jockey in the world if the ground comes up in his favour. He has already been round Aintree and finished in the places. He makes a last-fence error in his prep race and wins anyway. In the context of a field of 34 horses, those are not small things.

The honest reservation is his weight. At 11st 10lb he is towards the top of the handicap, and history suggests that most winners come from lower in the weights. But weight is assigned for a reason. The handicapper gives horses more to carry because they are better, and better horses find ways to win races that lesser ones cannot. Many Clouds won the National under 11st 9lb.

At 11/1 Grangeclare West is not the most attractive price in the field. But he may be among the most logical.