Gambling has been around as long as human history itself. Archaeologists have discovered dice made from sheep bones dating back to around 3000 BC in Mesopotamia. There’s no doubt that even then, those who liked to roll the dice were looking for an edge to boost their chances of winning.
Nothing much has changed since then, with techniques and strategies frequently being hailed as the next best way to get ahead in betting stakes. Of course, we now have the added advantage of highly sophisticated technology, which can be beneficial if you’re willing to put in the work.
If you are handy with a spreadsheet and don’t mind a bit of research, then statistics can be helpful. The level of information now available on almost every horse running, anywhere in the world, is so mind-blowing that if you apply yourself, you might just crack the formula for predicting the next long-shot win.
Long-Shot Betting
Much like trying to win the lottery, our hearts frequently overrule our heads when it comes to backing a rank outsider, none more so than in horse racing. So, why do we do it?
Often, it is the appeal of the underdog, the small yard taking on the giants of the industry. We instinctively root for them.
At other times, it is because the payoff for a small stake, if we do win, is substantial. We also know that the favourites only win around 33% of the time, so there’s always a chance that our 150/1 could sneak into the places or even win. That said, the strike rate for horses priced at 20/1 and above is much lower and less profitable over time!
By employing statistics to bet on horse racing, we can move beyond our ‘gut instinct’ when it comes to finding that elusive long-shot win.
Practical Steps For Using Statistics
Sure, all the reasons why we should use statistics are obvious, but how do you actually go about doing it?
The first thing you have to do is identify the most relevant stats for the type of race you want to bet on. Look at past performances, jockey win rates, and trainer records.
Get the data on each horse’s form, including finishing positions, speed figures, and history on similar racetracks and going conditions. Even facts like a preference for left or right-handed racecourses all contribute to building the bigger picture.
Review jockey and trainer statistics to determine the partnerships with the best strike rates. Identify patterns and trends in historical form, not just recent results. What some racing fans fail to realise is that trainers have a seasonal end goal in mind.
Whether that is a trip to Aintree or the Ryanair Chase at Cheltenham, the King George VI at Kempton, or the St Leger, every race a horse is entered into is geared towards that target.
Everything leading up to that is prep work, so consider past seasonal runs and identify the strategy the trainer is using. Then you’ll know whether the horse is worth backing, or if it is simply out to stretch its legs.
Then compare bookmakers’ odds to your assessment of each horse’s chance to identify where you should put your money. If you think a specific horse’s chances are higher than the odds suggest, that’s where you consider placing your bet.
If you are consistent in how you approach using statistics, you can continually refine your formula, employing a logical and evidence-based approach rather than relying on guesswork.
Keeping That Bankroll Healthy
Nothing will stop you in your tracks faster than running out of money. It’s easily done, especially if you genuinely think you’ve found a long shot to back in a race.
However, you must learn that within statistics, there is a small buffer called variance, which represents the fluctuation between wins and losses. Just because on paper a potential runner looks like a sure thing, it doesn’t mean it actually is.
Even sound statistical strategies will hit long periods without winners, and that is where proper bankroll management comes into play. Rather than placing single, large bets, use the smarter technique of spreading risk by using smaller each-way bets across a portfolio of meetings.
Mathematically, this has proven to be a far more effective strategy. Not only does it help offset any losses you might incur, but it also allows you to build your pot over a much longer period of time.
Improving Your Chances
Any additional information that you can use to help narrow down your betting choices will always be welcome. Statistics play a vital role in the world of sport as they form the foundation for so many bookmaker algorithms.
At the same time, it is important to recognise that all sports, especially horse racing, can be chaotic and unpredictable. You simply cannot control how an animal will react to a race on any given day.
So, use your spreadsheets and your head wisely. Take the losses with as much grace as you do the wins, keep it small and steady, stay on top of those stats, and hopefully you will be able to identify the next long shot to boost your pot.
